BioScience Trends. 2019;13(2):136-144. (DOI: 10.5582/bst.2018.01309)

A Clinical scoring model to predict mortality in HIV/TB co-infected patients at end stage of AIDS in China: An observational cohort study.

Zhang Z, Xu L, Pang XL, Zeng YQ, Hao YW, Wang Y, Wu L, Gao GJ, Yang D, Zhao HX, Xiao J


We construct and validate a non-invasive clinical scoring model to predict mortality in HIV/TB patients at end stage of AIDS in China. There were 1,007 HIV/TB patients admitted to Beijing Ditan Hospital from August 2009 to January 2018 included in this study, who were randomly assigned to form derivation cohort and validation cohort. A clinical scoring model was developed based on predictors associated with mortality identified with Cox proportional hazard models. The discrimination and accuracy of model were further validated using the area under the ROC curves. The derivation and validation cohort consisted of 807 and 200 patients in 8:2 ratio, respectively. In derivation cohort, anemia (HGB < 90g/L), tuberculous meningitis, severe pneumonia, hypoalbuminemia, unexplained infections or space-occupying lesions, and malignancies remained independent risk factors of mortality in HIV/TB coinfected patients, and included in this clinical scoring model. The model indicated good discrimination, including AUC = 0.858 (95% CI: 0.782-0.943) in the derivation cohort, and AUC = 0.867 (95% CI: 0.832-0.902) in validation cohort, respectively. The predicted scores were categorized into two groups to predict the mortality: low-risk (0-2 points with mortality with 3.6-9.1%) and high-risk (4-16 points with mortality with 26.42-74.62%), in which 54.55% and 74.62% of patients with score of 5 to 11 and 12-16 were died among high-risk group. Kaplan-Meier curve indicated a significant difference in the cumulative mortality in the two groups by log-rank test (p < 0.001). A clinical scoring model to assess the prognosis in HIV/TB patients at end stage of AIDS was constructed based on simple laboratory and clinical features available at admission, which may be an easy-to-use tool for physicians to evaluate the prognosis and treatment outcome in HIV/TB co-infected patients. The model was also applicable for predicting the death of end-stage HIV/TB patients within a 12 months period after discharge.

KEYWORDS: HIV, TB, mortality, risk score, China

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