BioScience Trends. 2024;18(3):277-288. (DOI: 10.5582/bst.2024.01112)

Establishment of nomogram prediction model of contrast-enhanced ultrasound and Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI for vessels encapsulating tumor clusters pattern of hepatocellular carcinoma

Wang FQ, Numata K, Funaoka A, Liu X, Kumamoto T, Takeda K, Chuma M, Nozaki A, Ruan LT, Maeda S

To establish clinical prediction models of vessels encapsulating tumor clusters (VETC) pattern using preoperative contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) and gadolinium-ethoxybenzyl-diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid magnetic resonance imaging (EOB-MRI) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A total of 111 resected HCC lesions from 101 patients were included. Preoperative imaging features of CEUS and EOB-MRI, postoperative recurrence, and survival information were collected from medical records. The best subset regression and multivariable Cox regression were used to select variables to establish the prediction model. The VETC-positive group had a statistically lower survival rate than the VETC-negative group. The selected variables were peritumoral enhancement in the arterial phase (AP), hepatobiliary phase (HBP) on EOB-MRI, intratumoral branching enhancement in the AP of CEUS, intratumoral hypoenhancement in the portal phase of CEUS, incomplete capsule, and tumor size. A nomogram was developed. High and low nomogram scores with a cutoff value of 168 points showed different recurrence-free survival rates and overall survival rates. The area under the curve (AUC) and accuracy were 0.804 and 0.820, respectively, indicating good discrimination. Decision curve analysis showed a good clinical net benefit (threshold probability > 5%), while the Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded excellent calibration (P = 0.6759). The AUC of the nomogram model combining EOB-MRI and CEUS was higher than that of the models with EOB-MRI factors only (0.767) and CEUS factors only (0.7). The nomogram verified by bootstrapping showed AUC and calibration curves similar to those of the nomogram model. The Prediction model based on CEUS and EOB-MRI is effective for preoperative noninvasive diagnosis of VETC.

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